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The minutes of the FOMC meeting published yesterday have had an impact on the current market sentiment. Previously, market players have seen and assessed that interest rate reductions will be implemented by the Fed as early as March 2024. However, the report of the minutes of the meeting has shown that the Fed sees a longer maintenance of interest rates should be implemented but does not rule out the implementation of interest rate reductions in 2024. This at the same time raising questions on the market about the actual period or time of the implementation of the interest rate that will be carried out.
The above factors have contributed to the increase in demand in the "US Treasury Yield" market where it has also reduced the demand in the gold market. Markets will now be focused on the release of key US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) employment data this Friday.
The Current Situation of the American Labor Market
Based on the employment data report that was published yesterday, the opening of job opportunities in the country has been seen to shrink to the lowest level since 2021. It provides information that the number of workers who quit has been seen to have decreased and while job demand has also decreased. This has provided evidence that the labor market in America is on the verge of " Cooling Labor Demand ". Total employment has decreased by 8.79 million compared to the last report which was 8.85 million.
Today's Data Focus
Tonight the ADP employment data report (private sector employment report) and initial jobless claims will be the focus. Tonight's data is seen to be a key indicator after yesterday's JOLTS release against tomorrow's NFP.
| Time | Data | Expectations | Before |
| 8.30pm | Challenger Job Cuts (Dec) | – | 45.51K |
| 9.15pm | ADP Employment Change (Dec) | 115K | 103K |
| 9.30pm | Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 29) | 216K | 218K |
Technical Analysis
" Resistance become support " (RBS) at the price level of $2050 is seen to be the focus of the gold market price. If the gold price continues to be pushed below the $2030 price level it will be tested. However, it does not rule out the possibility that gold will continue to trade low until the $2000 level.
If the $2050 price level is successfully broken, $2065 will be the first resistance before the $2078 price level is tested again.
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